By-Election Preview: Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) 9th of July 2026
A by-election in a staunchly Pro-Union part of the country is a huge opportunity for Reform to score a win, though Labour will benefit more from SNP transfer flows.
It is outrageous that it's 2026 and not just Scotland but basically entire UK has no official source for election results in live time, and indeed we even take pride in our archaic approach, ooh isn't it wonderful watching people line up on a stage, charming, quaint! No! It's a failure to modernise!
Oh, here we go, first results in from one of the 9 parishes, for the seats that are elected Jersey-wide, i.e. a part result. Meanwhile, what did we get last month in Scotland? Silence silence silence silence silence silence silence silence WHOLE REGION RESULT FOR EDINBURGH AND LOTHIANS EAST. Dire!
Similarly you can follow in real time via an official website in Peru as Keiko Fujimori inches ever closer to a potential fourth absolutely razor thin defeat in a row...
Sorry but if a country on track for it's 10th President in as many years can run such an official platform what's our excuse?
Portobello and Craigmillar was a comfortable 13% lead for the SNP over Labour after transfers. SNP likely favoured here given Labour's current woes. Curveball: the Greens did so well last month that they might be in contention, but definitely not the favourites.
By-Election Preview: Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) 2nd of July 2026
A messy vote in a historic SNP heartland, where the Conservatives made stunning inroads post-IndyRef, and Reform lead on one of the votes last month. A tossup between all three, then?
Edinburgh by-elections due on the 3rd of September. In 2022, Labour beat Greens by 2% after transfers. Given what happened last month, Greens should surely be ahead. If they win, that'd be only their second by-election win ever. Curveball: Lib Dems have a formidable local machine.
Even with Labour's weak position atm (plus in 2022 that Independent was former Lab), this is not a strong area for SNP, so can't see the latter winning. Instead, it'll come down to how transfers flow: in theory, SNP voters should favour Labour, but might not be enough to beat a strong Reform result.
Very quiet field for Larkhall by-election on the 9th of July: no Green, Lib Dem or other candidates. Larkhall has a particular reputation that leads me to believe that Reform will do very, very well here: indeed, they narrowly beat Labour on the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse list vote last month
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Ballot Box Scotland
Hasn't started yet but you will note in the letter to the Minister yesterday I called for a dedicated, official web portal for election results, rather than just "someone reads out numbers on a stage and maybe a PDF goes on a website", and here's Jersey, population ~100k, managing to have one.
