All but a handful of U.S. states just had one of their five warmest springs on record. Our look at the numbers for spring 2026 and May 2026, per NOAA/NCEI: @climateconnections.bsky.social
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/seco...
Record-low snowpack and historic late-March heat were among the standout events.
Weak disturbances that slide up the Texas coast, like the one just dubbed PTC 1, can cause surprising amounts of trouble. @climateconnections.bsky.social
It's been 11 years since we've had an El Niño as strong as what's now deemed likely by NOAA – or an Atlantic hurricane season as (relatively) placid as what's now predicted by CSU. More from @irenesans.bsky.social and me at @climateconnections.bsky.social:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/el-n...
Bob Henson
OK so is it safe to say that "something is happening" ?!
The new ENSO Euro Plumes were released this morning. Hard to believe, but they are even stronger! Some members are even above 4°C! Remarkable.
To be helpful I added color bars to distinguish between strong vs historic events. Almost all members are historical!
Now here’s the relative… 1/2
More urban artifacts! @drshepherd2013.bsky.social
Bob Henson
As a follow up to yesterday’s post. This graph uses a different index (rONI) which accounts for the warming climate baseline and the tropical ocean mean outside the El Niño region during each time period. Here we see the 2026 dynamical model forecast is still the highest, but much less so… 1/
Bob Henson
Impressive! NOAA has modeled the recent CMEs, and impact could be in just over 24 hr from now! Tomorrow night (Thursday) we could see G3 / Kp 7 conditions and widespread auroral displays. Impact slated for 18 UT / 1 pm CDT June 4. Charge those batteries!
Sea surface temperatures are already surging to record high levels for this time of year in key El Niño monitoring areas.
➡️ Sign up for our next monthly state of the climate webinar to learn more: climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi.... We'll also be talking about the hurricane season outlook.
From the CEO of AAAS:
“If this rule becomes final, Americans' hopes for future cures, national security and economic strength will rely on the scientific sensibilities of the nation's chief bureaucrat. Alzheimer's disease will not be cured by a budget analyst from either political party.”
Bob Henson
Jeff Berardelli
Jeff Berardelli
Richard Dixon
yaleclimateconnections.org
Zack Labe
The arrival of El Niño is increasing confidence in a quieter-than-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University now expects only 11 named storms this year, well below average. Still...
The forecast strength of this El Niño is astonishing! Plotted below are all the strongest El Nino’s on record vs the 2026 forecast (thick white line). Look at how deviant this event has the “potential” to be! Forget “Super”, if this verifies it deserves “Supercalifragilistic expialidocious!”… 1/
This is something I have never seen before on satellite.
Clouds perfectly outlining roads.
Just incredibly neat imagery of Houston, Texas this morning.
Massive shoutout to Ethan Mok who discovered it (on Twitter).
Video
Jeff Berardelli
I have often been critical of the leadership @aaas.org but they just took action on the new OMB rules that will politicize science, speaking out and notifying members. I hope all take the time to follow their advice, contact Congress, and most important, post a comment
www.aaas.org/news/aaas-st...
Dakota Smith
My first post on an active Atlantic tropical system of 2026, and the first to be triple-authored by @irenesans.bsky.social, @bhensonweather.bsky.social, and myself:
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/06/heav...
As it slogs northeastward, the system may become a tropical depression or tropical storm – but flooding is a real threat regardless.
