Karl here gives an excellent and nuanced overview of some of what our research (w/ @philipjcowley.bsky.social suggests about short-(and long-)termism in British politics.
1/4
Alarmed to realise that my attempt to offer a fresh perspective on the partisan "bias" in electoral expectations, and what it means for democracy, was accepted for publication almost a year ago.
tl;dr: voters hope their vote isn't futile, and that's OK.
Grateful for the chance to discuss private members' bills (usage, reform, etc) today at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - alongside @kimleadbeatermp.bsky.social, @paulbrand.bsky.social, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social & Luke Norbury.
Recording here:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/assist...
tl;dr: a two-minute video summary to whet the appetite.
youtube.com/shorts/xOP8t...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
And there is certainly a reading of these findings as suggesting that voters are short-termist, which @philipjcowley.bsky.social explores with characteristic panache:
www.ft.com/content/820c...
3/4
We previously made Karl's point about the balance between addressing short- and long-term issues here. As Karl discusses, there is a connection between the two. What you do in the short term affects what you can do in the long:
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
2/4
But, as Karl alludes to in his remarks, the *current* situation is complicated. There is a complex interplay between "patience", what was promised, delivery, and clarity/consistency of vision, as I set out here:
open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
4/4
Latest piece for the @financialtimes.com, on who gets to vote for a new Labour Prime Minister
www.ft.com/content/d2d9...
An expert panel drew on lessons from the recent assisted dying bill and other PMBs to consider how backbench MPs should approach complex issues.
Discussed ongoing research with @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social on the BBC’s Moral Maze yesterday evening - about what the ‘short term’ and the ‘long term’ mean in politics and policymaking.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Daniel Gover
Philip Cowley
Live debate examining the moral issues behind one of the week's news stories.
tl;dr (but do read it!): less educated, older, more men than women, dissatisfied, anti-immigration/'woke'/EU, and reckon welfare benefits are too generous.
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/IbHauRb
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
Karl Pike
This chapter examines the character of support for Reform, how it has evolved since the 2024 election and possible explanations for the party's rise.
