tl;dr: a two-minute video summary to whet the appetite.
youtube.com/shorts/xOP8t...
Alarmed to realise that my attempt to offer a fresh perspective on the partisan "bias" in electoral expectations, and what it means for democracy, was accepted for publication almost a year ago.
tl;dr: voters hope their vote isn't futile, and that's OK.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Grateful for the chance to discuss private members' bills (usage, reform, etc) today at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - alongside @kimleadbeatermp.bsky.social, @paulbrand.bsky.social, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social & Luke Norbury.
Recording here:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/assist...
An expert panel drew on lessons from the recent assisted dying bill and other PMBs to consider how backbench MPs should approach complex issues.
Karl here gives an excellent and nuanced overview of some of what our research (w/ @philipjcowley.bsky.social suggests about short-(and long-)termism in British politics.
1/4
Latest piece for the @financialtimes.com, on who gets to vote for a new Labour Prime Minister
www.ft.com/content/d2d9...
And there is certainly a reading of these findings as suggesting that voters are short-termist, which @philipjcowley.bsky.social explores with characteristic panache:
www.ft.com/content/820c...
3/4
Matthew Barnfield
Daniel Gover
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Around three-quarters of those who can vote in any contest on who succeeds Starmer are not Labour Party members
But, as Karl alludes to in his remarks, the *current* situation is complicated. There is a complex interplay between "patience", what was promised, delivery, and clarity/consistency of vision, as I set out here:
open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
4/4
Matthew Barnfield
We previously made Karl's point about the balance between addressing short- and long-term issues here. As Karl discusses, there is a connection between the two. What you do in the short term affects what you can do in the long:
theconversation.com/keir-starmer...
2/4
Matthew Barnfield
Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley
tl;dr (but do read it!): less educated, older, more men than women, dissatisfied, anti-immigration/'woke'/EU, and reckon welfare benefits are too generous.
Tim Bale
Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/IbHauRb
@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
What a fantastic idea! We can use Insta to tell people that the government is like a household! This will help guide voters towards better choices!
www.ft.com
It turns out that we voters may be to blame for the UK’s short-termism
