I tend to come down w/Kofman; I think it's not so much talking past each other as it is trying to figure out how to slice two fundamentally different analytical questions:
- what is the military assessment of a force performing a task
- what is the political assessment inside a leader's head
Excellent analysis of the rise and fall of Russian volunteer-driven efforts to provide drones and other supplies to the front in the war in Ukraine from @sambendett.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social -
warontherocks.com/the-strange-...
New informative interview with @michaelkofman.bsky.social
Some key points:
- 🇷🇺 mil performance is worse, 🇺🇦 is better
- importance of 🇺🇦 "middle strike"
- estimates over 400K Russian fatalities
- challenge of the 🇷🇺 campaign against critical infrastructure
- 🇷🇺 demands unreasonable
- war continues
12/ Responding to a recent War on the Rocks article by @sambendett and @KofmanMichael on the problems of Russia's 'People's Military-Industrial Complex', the 'Russian Engineer' Telegram channel essentially agrees with the authors and the complaints of 'Forge of Mordor':
Faine Greenwood
Mike Black
Part 2 of the Russia Contingency episode is out with Rob Lee. We cover insights from the latest field study, situation at the front, drone enabled assault and other issues. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
nymag.com
Military analyst Michael Kofman says “time is increasingly not on Russia’s side.”
The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join Jack Watling to talk about the current battlefield dynamics. We compare notes from recent trips, exploring why Ukraine is doing better and Russian forces are visibly performing worse. warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
A new episode of Russia Contingency is out. I talk to Sergey Vakulenko about Russia’s energy sector. We cover declining production, how the Russian state receives revenue, impact of strikes and the war with Iran. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...
Weekend listen: @warontherocks.bsky.social update on the war in Ukraine with @michaelkofman.bsky.social & @ryanevans.bsky.social. An invaluable resource since Russia launched its invasion over four years ago. This week: grey zones, Wagnerization, and drones. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
Brian Taylor
ChrisO_wiki
In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer
Fascinating review of shifting crises in the Russo-Ukrainian war by @michaelkofman.bsky.social on The Long Game podcast. Initiative is mostly on the Ukrainian side, thanks to innovation in drones & other battlefield tech, but Ukraine still needs Western support. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Michael Kofman
Michael Kofman
Michael Kofman
Joseph Britt
Joseph Britt
Podcast Episode · War on the Rocks · April 9 · 28m
podcasts.apple.com
Mike sits down with Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, fresh off a trip to Ukraine, to take stock of a war that may...
Mike talks with Sergey Vakulenko, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Berlin and former Russian energy sector insider, about the mounting pressures on Russia's oil industry through...
warontherocks.com
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee continue their discussion of the Russo-Ukrainian War based on their latest field study. They assess the battlefield outlook for 2026,...
"Kofman offers a valuable insider’s account of why military prediction is hard, but doesn’t engage with the structural question my piece was asking: why expert communities systematically fail at discontinuous change." our debate continues here:
podcasts.apple.com
Podcast Episode · The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer · June 4 · 1h 10m
