I tend to come down w/Kofman; I think it's not so much talking past each other as it is trying to figure out how to slice two fundamentally different analytical questions:
- what is the military assessment of a force performing a task
- what is the political assessment inside a leader's head
Mike Black
"Kofman offers a valuable insider’s account of why military prediction is hard, but doesn’t engage with the structural question my piece was asking: why expert communities systematically fail at discontinuous change." our debate continues here:
a debate about military forecasting, broken clocks, and magic wands
