Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“
Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...
"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime."
Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.
Opinion: Russia's war on Ukraine is not a stalemate. On land, sea and air, in sanctions’ design and enforcement, and in the geography of resourcing, the war is escalating and will continue to do so, writes @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
Opinion | This article was originally published by the International Institue for Strategic Studies.
Wow. Rubikon have caused significant difficulties for Ukraine. This defection, if genuine, could be a significant source of intelligence.
Ivan U. KŁYSZCZ
R Phelps
My latest on the sound and fury --and predictable insignificance-- of the latest round of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy:
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference.
#HSF25
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
My essay for Survival (the IISS journal) on the personal as geopolitical. Draws on my diplomatic past and present observations of the Trump presidency.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
A tumultuous week has consumed much energy, changed little and exposed Europe’s weakness.
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
While orthodox strategic arguments hover in the background, Trump himself speaks of international relations in visceral, tactile, intimate terms rather than bloodless abstractions of interest and values.
A Russian drone operator from the elite “Rubikon” unit has defected to Ukraine, according to an interview published by the Ukrainian intelligence project “I Want to Live.” Miroslav Simonov said he underwent UAV training in Russia, was deployed near Kupyansk, and later crossed to Ukrainian positions.
Sunday #HSF2025 opened with a pressing topic: Russia and the future of European security order.
European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
“We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”
