My latest on the sound and fury --and predictable insignificance-- of the latest round of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy:
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“
This is v good on why time is now on Ukraine's side. We urgently need more thinking that acknowledges how screwed Putin is and what comes next (like here, on Ru escalation, or on what the West must insist is in any peace deal), rather than the usual musings on Russian strength.
Nigel Gould-Davies
Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Opinion: Russia's war on Ukraine is not a stalemate. On land, sea and air, in sanctions’ design and enforcement, and in the geography of resourcing, the war is escalating and will continue to do so, writes @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
Edward Walker
Wow. Rubikon have caused significant difficulties for Ukraine. This defection, if genuine, could be a significant source of intelligence.
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime."
Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
My essay for Survival (the IISS journal) on the personal as geopolitical. Draws on my diplomatic past and present observations of the Trump presidency.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference.
#HSF25
Nigel Gould-Davies
R Phelps
Ivan U. KŁYSZCZ
The Moscow Times
Nigel Gould-Davies
Nigel Gould-Davies
Brian Taylor
Nigel Gould-Davies
Sunday #HSF2025 opened with a pressing topic: Russia and the future of European security order.
European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
“We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”
Helsinki Security Forum
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Nigel Gould-Davies
www.iiss.org
A tumultuous week has consumed much energy, changed little and exposed Europe’s weakness.
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.www.iiss.org
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.www.iiss.org
While orthodox strategic arguments hover in the background, Trump himself speaks of international relations in visceral, tactile, intimate terms rather than bloodless abstractions of interest and values.
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
Time may no longer be on Russia's side.
US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
A Russian drone operator from the elite “Rubikon” unit has defected to Ukraine, according to an interview published by the Ukrainian intelligence project “I Want to Live.” Miroslav Simonov said he underwent UAV training in Russia, was deployed near Kupyansk, and later crossed to Ukrainian positions.
Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.
www.iiss.org
www.iiss.org
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
