Potentially a very big deal. Changing the Westminster electoral system would fundamentally change our politics. Lesson from other countries is also that once FPP has been ditched it is unlikely to be brought back.
Today marks the beginning of Pride Month 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️
Here is a graph on why we still need pride.
Currently in FirstView: In “Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls,” @bogatyrev.bsky.social and @lstoetze.bsky.social examine synthetic control methods (SCMs) and make the case for jointly estimating synthetic controls across multiple compositional outcomes.
Trying to understand why synthetic control is for a while. Comments are welcome!
yiqingxu.substack.com/p/what-is-sy...
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
Rob Ford
We show that politicians' perceptual errors are primarily an expression of "midpoint hedging", a well-known cognitive quirk, leading them to skew their estimations towards 50% even when real public opinion is far from being evenly split. Hedging accounts for two thirds (!) of politicians' errors./2
A great overview of the accommodation question by Hanno Hilbig, worth your time!
I'm working on a project on cross-national young gender gap that shows dif patterns. The below w ESS & CSES data show 1. Dif in ideology (id=standardized by country) btwn young men & women, where x is year & y is standard deviations 2. Young men & women ideology relative to other age-gender groups
Excited to announce that my paper "Socioeconomic development and the uneven legacies of authoritarian repression" has been published at the Journal of Historical Political Economy. This grew out of my second year ("591") PhD paper. www.emerald.com/jhpe/article...
1/ Happy to share that "Factorial Difference-in-Differences" (FDID), with Anqi Zhao and
@pengding00
, is out in JASA - ACS. doi.org/10.1080/0162...
It has been a truly thrilling experience working with Anqi and Peng.
What the literature has converged to in the past 20 years.
We formulate factorial difference-in-differences (FDID), a research design that extends canonical difference-in-differences (DID) to settings in which an event affects all units. In many panel data...
We're hiring 2 postdocs at @uio.no on my ERC-Cog project on how authoritarian regimes shape scientific knowledge. 3–4 years, U. of Oslo. Deadline: 10 Sept 2026. Great dept., terms, well funded, bustling & green Scandi capital. Apply!
👉 jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/303060/postdoctoral-fello
Markus Wagner
Lior Sheffer
Amelia Malpas
jobbnorge.no
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow (303060), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Thursday, September 10, 2026
I've now seen four separate pieces accusing John Burn-Murdoch (Financial Times, you've seen his stuff before) of messing with his data on four separate occasions:
1. isitcredible.com/cases
2. unherd.com/newsroom/the...
3. github.com/James-Traina...
4. blog.albertkuo.me/post/2024-01...
Patrick Dunleavy
Andy Burnham backs proportional representation for Westminster with a Labour manifesto commitment if he becomes leader. He also says he would work with the Greens. My interview for @theobserveruk.bsky.social Walk observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
On a stroll through Makerfield, the Greater Manchester mayor tells Rachel Sylvester what his father’s Alzheimer’s revealed about social care, and how to restore trust in democracy and government
