Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.
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Ballot Box Scotland
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Hasn't started yet but you will note in the letter to the Minister yesterday I called for a dedicated, official web portal for election results, rather than just "someone reads out numbers on a stage and maybe a PDF goes on a website", and here's Jersey, population ~100k, managing to have one.
By-Election Preview: Larkhall (South Lanarkshire) 9th of July 2026
A by-election in a staunchly Pro-Union part of the country is a huge opportunity for Reform to score a win, though Labour will benefit more from SNP transfer flows.
Similarly you can follow in real time via an official website in Peru as Keiko Fujimori inches ever closer to a potential fourth absolutely razor thin defeat in a row...
Sorry but if a country on track for it's 10th President in as many years can run such an official platform what's our excuse?
By-Election Preview: Peterhead South and Cruden (Aberdeenshire) 2nd of July 2026
A messy vote in a historic SNP heartland, where the Conservatives made stunning inroads post-IndyRef, and Reform lead on one of the votes last month. A tossup between all three, then?
Even with Labour's weak position atm (plus in 2022 that Independent was former Lab), this is not a strong area for SNP, so can't see the latter winning. Instead, it'll come down to how transfers flow: in theory, SNP voters should favour Labour, but might not be enough to beat a strong Reform result.
Edinburgh by-elections due on the 3rd of September. In 2022, Labour beat Greens by 2% after transfers. Given what happened last month, Greens should surely be ahead. If they win, that'd be only their second by-election win ever. Curveball: Lib Dems have a formidable local machine.
Portobello and Craigmillar was a comfortable 13% lead for the SNP over Labour after transfers. SNP likely favoured here given Labour's current woes. Curveball: the Greens did so well last month that they might be in contention, but definitely not the favourites.
Oh, here we go, first results in from one of the 9 parishes, for the seats that are elected Jersey-wide, i.e. a part result. Meanwhile, what did we get last month in Scotland? Silence silence silence silence silence silence silence silence WHOLE REGION RESULT FOR EDINBURGH AND LOTHIANS EAST. Dire!
A by-election in a staunchly Pro-Union part of the country is a huge opportunity for Reform to score a win, though Labour will benefit more from SNP transfer flows.
A messy vote in a historic SNP heartland, where the Conservatives made stunning inroads post-IndyRef, and Reform lead on one of the votes last month. A tossup between all three, then?
It is outrageous that it's 2026 and not just Scotland but basically entire UK has no official source for election results in live time, and indeed we even take pride in our archaic approach, ooh isn't it wonderful watching people line up on a stage, charming, quaint! No! It's a failure to modernise!
