Working on all things tax and econ policy for Bipartisan Policy Center.
Andrew Lautz
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WHO'S GETTING BIGGER REFUNDS: In recent @bipartisanpolicy.org polling, we found that $150k+ households were more likely to perceive a larger refund (45%) than <$75k (31%).
Tip/OT households were more likely to perceive BOTH changes that helped & harmed.
bipartisanpolicy.org/article/take...
THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS: There remain lots of research Qs to chew on from this filing season, including:
- Why were OT claims so high?
- How many claimed higher SALT?
- Will info reporting change future tips/OT claims?
- Will any of these tax cuts cost more than expected?
NOT JUST ABOUT REFUNDS: Taxpayers who owe at tax time may still be getting a tax cut; it's just that they may owe $1,000 instead of $2,000.
Data from the Treasury Dept indicate tax payments are lower than they were in 2025, though we'll have more info on this in the days ahead.
Andrew Lautz
It's Tax Day! Here's a thread on what we know about how the tax filing season has gone so far. 🧵
REFUNDS: ⬆️ than last year, ⬇️ than some predicted. Current average is $3,462, which is $346 (11%) higher than 2025.
Some were predicting $3,800 or $4,000+. Haven't seen that yet.
ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: More than 23 million returns have claimed the overtime deduction, above expectations.
More than 5.5M have claimed the tips deduction, and over 1M the auto loan interest deduction. Auto loan interest is below expectations.
www.politico.com/news/2026/04...
IS ANYONE HOME? After a year of staff/funding cuts at the IRS, many have asked/wondered if anyone is left there.
The answer is yes. Returns are being processed and refunds sent out at the expected pace. How the changes affects tax enforcement and assistance is another question.
WHO'S GETTING REFUNDS OVERALL: Zoom out though, and 71% of taxpayers are receiving refunds rather than owing at tax time. This is up 3 percentage points from last year.
This number will likely fall after Tax Day, as we receive data for all the people who paid at the last minute.
ACTUAL TAX CUT FROM NEW DEDUCTIONS: How much a tips or overtime deduction actually translates to a tax cut depends on:
1) the amount deducted; and
2) the household's tax bracket.
This filing season, it's a mix of lots claiming small tax cuts and some claiming large tax cuts.
READ MORE: At @bipartisanpolicy.org we'll continue diving in on these topics. For more...
Our filing season brief: bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...
Our analysis of what's driving higher refunds: bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...
Takeaways from our poll: bipartisanpolicy.org/article/take...
WILL ANYONE CARE? The political question of this filing season is whether folks will notice a positive tax change in 2026 & attribute it to the 2025 tax cuts.
@bipartisanpolicy.org polling indicates a hazy connection, something that has challenged both parties' signature laws before.
