READ MORE: At @bipartisanpolicy.org we'll continue diving in on these topics. For more...
Our filing season brief: bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...
Our analysis of what's driving higher refunds: bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...
Takeaways from our poll: bipartisanpolicy.org/article/take...
The 2026 federal tax filing season, scheduled to open in late January and end on April 15, is one of the most anticipated in years. Tens of millions of taxpayers are expected to receive larger refunds...
WILL ANYONE CARE? The political question of this filing season is whether folks will notice a positive tax change in 2026 & attribute it to the 2025 tax cuts.
@bipartisanpolicy.org polling indicates a hazy connection, something that has challenged both parties' signature laws before.
It's Tax Day! Here's a thread on what we know about how the tax filing season has gone so far. 🧵
REFUNDS: ⬆️ than last year, ⬇️ than some predicted. Current average is $3,462, which is $346 (11%) higher than 2025.
Some were predicting $3,800 or $4,000+. Haven't seen that yet.
WHO'S GETTING BIGGER REFUNDS: In recent @bipartisanpolicy.org polling, we found that $150k+ households were more likely to perceive a larger refund (45%) than <$75k (31%).
Tip/OT households were more likely to perceive BOTH changes that helped & harmed.
bipartisanpolicy.org/article/take...
ACTUAL TAX CUT FROM NEW DEDUCTIONS: How much a tips or overtime deduction actually translates to a tax cut depends on:
1) the amount deducted; and
2) the household's tax bracket.
This filing season, it's a mix of lots claiming small tax cuts and some claiming large tax cuts.
ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: More than 23 million returns have claimed the overtime deduction, above expectations.
More than 5.5M have claimed the tips deduction, and over 1M the auto loan interest deduction. Auto loan interest is below expectations.
www.politico.com/news/2026/04...
