READ MORE: At @bipartisanpolicy.org we'll continue diving in on these topics. For more...
Our filing season brief: bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...
Our analysis of what's driving higher refunds: bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...
Takeaways from our poll: bipartisanpolicy.org/article/take...
The 2026 federal tax filing season, scheduled to open in late January and end on April 15, is one of the most anticipated in years. Tens of millions of taxpayers are expected to receive larger refunds...
WILL ANYONE CARE? The political question of this filing season is whether folks will notice a positive tax change in 2026 & attribute it to the 2025 tax cuts.
@bipartisanpolicy.org polling indicates a hazy connection, something that has challenged both parties' signature laws before.
NOT JUST ABOUT REFUNDS: Taxpayers who owe at tax time may still be getting a tax cut; it's just that they may owe $1,000 instead of $2,000.
Data from the Treasury Dept indicate tax payments are lower than they were in 2025, though we'll have more info on this in the days ahead.
THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS: There remain lots of research Qs to chew on from this filing season, including:
- Why were OT claims so high?
- How many claimed higher SALT?
- Will info reporting change future tips/OT claims?
- Will any of these tax cuts cost more than expected?
It's Tax Day! Here's a thread on what we know about how the tax filing season has gone so far. 🧵
REFUNDS: ⬆️ than last year, ⬇️ than some predicted. Current average is $3,462, which is $346 (11%) higher than 2025.
Some were predicting $3,800 or $4,000+. Haven't seen that yet.
