Surging headline inflation again in May but relatively benign reading on core, though the Fed's preferred gauge of core PCE inflation should stay at an uncomfortable 3.3% y/y. The end of housing disinflation may be a developing story
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Conflicting signals b/w surging hiring in payrolls & a stable UR & cooling wage growth. Plenty of special factors have flattered spring hiring (warm temps, Wortld Cup, weird pops in public hiring) but at a minimum most Fed officials will increasingly focus on the inflation mandate, will Warsh?
Maybe just workign off the supply overhang?
Headline inflation at pandemic levels on a 3m basis...energy futures say this won't last but the Strait of Hormuz is not open
the boiling frogs of finance is excellent prose...
The Q2 survey is a fun one--how *SHOULD* Fed communication/policy strategy change w/ the Warsh Fed, how *WILL* it change? Give us your views and you will receive a opy of the full results this Friday ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Copy to take the survey here:
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8870674/M...
