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2d
Video
Solomon
The signal from the ISM Non-Manufacturing employment index contradicts seasonally adjusted ADP and is a statistically significant predictor of nonfarm payrolls
7d
Julia Coronado
The audacity of Dylan Harper! 🖤🩶
Surging headline inflation again in May but relatively benign reading on core, though the Fed's preferred gauge of core PCE inflation should stay at an uncomfortable 3.3% y/y. The end of housing disinflation may be a developing story
6d
GO SPURS GO!!!!
2h
6d
4d
We are not angry enough--a whistleblower provided evidence a DOGE brat stole social sec data & sold it to a Palantir contractor. Our data is used to sell services back to the govt at taxpayer expense for big profits. That is OUR data. Instead of investigating the whisteblower is threatened 😠
Julia Coronado
Julia Coronado
Julia Coronado
Julia Coronado
Conflicting signals b/w surging hiring in payrolls & a stable UR & cooling wage growth. Plenty of special factors have flattered spring hiring (warm temps, Wortld Cup, weird pops in public hiring) but at a minimum most Fed officials will increasingly focus on the inflation mandate, will Warsh?
5d
1d
The Q2 survey is a fun one--how *SHOULD* Fed communication/policy strategy change w/ the Warsh Fed, how *WILL* it change? Give us your views and you will receive a opy of the full results this Friday ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Copy to take the survey here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8870674/M...