social science today: rain and physical activity are just correlated because observational data but iphones cause fertility decline because DiD...
niche take: there is no such thing as a "causal" estimate, there are only estimates that converge in probability to your stated estimand and those that don't
New paper, with Patrick Fournier & @zeynsom.bsky.social, out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social!
🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
a brief 🧵
New pub with Camilla Bjarnøe, Kristina Jessen Hansen & Mads Thau
What makes political group appeals work?
Politicians routinely flatter voter groups but we know little whether it works. We tested class-based flattery appeals using survey experiments in 🇩🇰 Denmark and 🇺🇸 the US.
New publication with Camilla Bjarnøe Jensen, @dschraff.bsky.social and Mads Thau.
Flattery seems common in politics. Flattery is the use of compliments and praise (whether accurate or not) aimed at evoking liking for personal gain.
Taking a stand ✋️🧍
These authors 🧵 use survey data across 9 countries to assess the downstreams consequences of #AffectivePolarization & intervene to successfully reduce participants #AffectivePolarization in 6 of the 9, improving interpersonal relations and social norms
buff.ly/tHRWa65
Happy to share that my paper with @tobiasbach.bsky.social, Nick Jacobs and Craig Parsons is now out with @epsrjournal.bsky.social: shorturl.at/c9Mu6 (1/THREAD)
We find that:
✅ Flattery boosts candidate support especially among strong group identifiers
✅ Flattery can potentially even mobilize high-status groups (upper-middle class) who are usually unresponsive to group-based appeals
Open access @ Political Behavior:
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
I'm pleased to see our paper introducing the Democratic Erosion Event Dataset (DEED), an events-based dataset on democratic erosion, finally out in Nature Scientific Data. In our data, we distinguish between resistance, precursors, symptoms, and destabilizing events www.nature.com/articles/s41...
📑❗️Our article with @grigopop.bsky.social and Graeme Robertson on the effects of Ukraine’s decentralization reform on satisfaction with public services (and democracy) in Ukraine 🇺🇦 was just published in Comparative Political Studies! doi.org/10.1177/0010...