New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict?
Try your hand at it:
socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy.
Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09...
@cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social
Very interesting work by @evavivalt.bsky.social and @sdellavi.bsky.social. Particularly intriguing is the finding that a surprising negative relationship between confidence and accuracy is accounted for by a subset of persistently overconfident forecasters.
Check out new position for a 2-year pre-doc starting summer 2026. I work closely with the pre-doc (meeting daily) and will actively mentor towards PhD application. Pre-doc will work on multiple behavioral/applied micro projects. Posting: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF05225
Nobel prize winner George Akerlof (my former colleague) on the firing of statistics officials:
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/o...
Excited to announce our amazing lineup of speakers for the 2026 JDM preconference at SPSP!
Conference date: Feb 26th
Location: Chicago
Deadline to apply: Oct 23rd.
Application link: spsp.wufoo.com/forms/2026-p...
cc: @sdellavi.bsky.social, @hirshmansam.bsky.social, @vinisingh.bsky.social
Dunning-Kruger effect in practice:
In 53k forecasts across 100 projects, people who are more confident are actually much less accurate.
New 📄 by @evavivalt.bsky.social & @sdellavi.bsky.social
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Not quite sure how to put it all in words, but I just spent an extraordinary day celebrating my dissertation adviser, Larry Katz. Feeling grateful, proud, and (re-) inspired.
Larry has raised so many extraordinary economists that being in the same room as them was overwhelming.
I was the AEA's President Elect as the first Trump term began. We worried about government statistics then, and appointed a committee that included members (such as Google's Chief Economist) who might be in a position to help make reliable statistics available if the government went dark.
#econsky
Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? Ap...
Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...
🚨 New working paper!
How well do people predict the results of studies?
@sdellavi.bsky.social and I leverage data from the first 100 studies to have been posted on the SSPP, containing 1,482 key questions, on which over 50,000 forecasts were placed. Some surprising results below.... 🧵👇
Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing
As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements
This is a big deal
