5/ This comment is also part of the Iranian informational campaign aimed at deterring further US military action against Iran because Baghaei is implicitly threatening to suspend negotiations if the United States takes military action against Iran.
6/ Iran is exploiting the current situation in which it has neither made concessions in negotiations nor faces continuous large-scale strikes from the United States and Israel to advance its objectives, such as normalizing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
7/ CTP-ISW previously assessed that the Iranian regime likely calculates that the status quo is favorable to achieving its objectives.
4/ Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei separately stated on June 10 that Iran will “review” negotiations with the United States in light of the US self-defense strikes on Iran on June 9.
2/ Iran is using force, combined with threats to suspend US-Iran negotiations, to try to deter the US from conducting further attacks on Iran that would likely make it more difficult for Iran to achieve its strategic objectives, including solidifying control over the Strait and preserving the AoR.
3/ The Iranian regime likely calculated that the United States would not resume the war in response to these strikes given recent reports that US President Donald Trump would prefer a negotiated settlement over a resumption of conflict.
MORE | The Iranian regime likely intended for the June 9 strikes to have an informational effect by signaling to the United States that Iranian forces would be prepared to resume the war with the United States if necessary
