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Critical Threats Project
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Recent Iranian threats to keep the strait closed unless Israel ends operations in Lebanon further demonstrate the regime's willingness to use the waterway as a strategic source of leverage. (6/7)
Iranian officials continue to signal that the regime will charge “fees” in the long-term for vessels that want to transit the strait, which is part of the broader Iranian effort to maintain long-term control over the strait. The MoU allows for a resumption of fee collection after 60 days. (7/7)
The Israel Defense Forces has continued operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, despite Iranian insistence that Israel must halt its campaign in Lebanon as part of the MoU. (3/7)
Iran, under the current MoU, retains the ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as a tool to secure concessions and advance its strategic objectives. (5/7)
Hezbollah seriously affects northern Israeli security, and its attacks have displaced Israeli citizens there. Israel is not a signatory to the MoU, even though the signatories added language that implied that Israel and Hezbollah were signatories. (4/7)
Iran is likely connecting these two clauses to compel the United States to pressure Israel to cease operations in Lebanon. (2/7)
NEW I IRGC-affiliated media has made Iranian implementation of the US-Iran agreement, particularly provisions concerning the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. (1/7)
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
