The totality of the data supports our analysis that the initial price shock has not yet worked its way through the economy. #Econ #EconSky
An encouraging start as Asian markets get going with oil down 4% as a tentative extension of the cease fire is agreed to.
Following yesterday's CPI and the PPI data this morning we are forecasting an increase in the PCE MoM at 0.4%, YoY at 3.9%. Core MoM at 0.3% and YoY at 3.4%. #Econ #EconSky
We are approaching a peak but not there yet amidst real risk of another round of inflation later this summer and fall should the war not be wound down and the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. #Econ #EconSky
US May PPI: An absolutely brutal 6.5% year ago increase in wholesale inflation.
The final demand estimate implies a combination of thinning margins & further increase in inflation. #Econ #EconSky
My view on the world this afternoon. @dodgersdigest.bsky.social vs @whitesox.bsky.social
Our provisional forecast following the outbreak of the war and ensuing supply shock was 4% for PCE-the Fed's preferred metric- and a peak of 4.5% in CPI. #Econ #EconSky
Good morning. The US economy possesses a depth & diversity of factors that support risk taking, innovation & growth in a way that’s simply not comparable across its G-7 trade partners.
My discussion on why the American economy continues to outperform via the BBC. #econ
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Good morning. Gasoline prices have eased over the couple of weeks which brings modest relief to consumers.
News flow suggesting a near term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is encouraging given the risk to the inflation & economic outlook as the inventory drawdown accelerates. #Econ #EconSky
Take a look at the data viz where one can see an echo of past crises in contemporary oil volatility. #Econ #EconSky
