- LSE Fellow in political behaviour at @lsegovernment.bsky.social
- PhD from Bocconi (2025) on electoral accountability for illiberals & authoritarians + quant methods
- 🏳️🌈 he/they
https://www.lse.ac.uk/government/people/academic-staff/konstantin-bogatyrev
Konstantin Bogatyrev
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Trying to understand why synthetic control is for a while. Comments are welcome!
yiqingxu.substack.com/p/what-is-sy...
Currently in FirstView: In “Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls,” @bogatyrev.bsky.social and @lstoetze.bsky.social examine synthetic control methods (SCMs) and make the case for jointly estimating synthetic controls across multiple compositional outcomes.
1/ Happy to share that "Factorial Difference-in-Differences" (FDID), with Anqi Zhao and
@pengding00
, is out in JASA - ACS. doi.org/10.1080/0162...
It has been a truly thrilling experience working with Anqi and Peng.
I'm working on a project on cross-national young gender gap that shows dif patterns. The below w ESS & CSES data show 1. Dif in ideology (id=standardized by country) btwn young men & women, where x is year & y is standard deviations 2. Young men & women ideology relative to other age-gender groups
We're hiring 2 postdocs at @uio.no on my ERC-Cog project on how authoritarian regimes shape scientific knowledge. 3–4 years, U. of Oslo. Deadline: 10 Sept 2026. Great dept., terms, well funded, bustling & green Scandi capital. Apply!
👉 jobbnorge.no/en/available-jobs/job/303060/postdoctoral-fello
We show that politicians' perceptual errors are primarily an expression of "midpoint hedging", a well-known cognitive quirk, leading them to skew their estimations towards 50% even when real public opinion is far from being evenly split. Hedging accounts for two thirds (!) of politicians' errors./2
What the literature has converged to in the past 20 years.
Potentially a very big deal. Changing the Westminster electoral system would fundamentally change our politics. Lesson from other countries is also that once FPP has been ditched it is unlikely to be brought back.
We formulate factorial difference-in-differences (FDID), a research design that extends canonical difference-in-differences (DID) to settings in which an event affects all units. In many panel data...
Excited to announce that my paper "Socioeconomic development and the uneven legacies of authoritarian repression" has been published at the Journal of Historical Political Economy. This grew out of my second year ("591") PhD paper. www.emerald.com/jhpe/article...
A great overview of the accommodation question by Hanno Hilbig, worth your time!
Today marks the beginning of Pride Month 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️
Here is a graph on why we still need pride.
Yiqing Xu
Yiqing Xu
Political Analysis
Amelia Malpas
Tore Wig
Rob Ford
Lior Sheffer
Isabelle DeSisto
Markus Wagner
I've now seen four separate pieces accusing John Burn-Murdoch (Financial Times, you've seen his stuff before) of messing with his data on four separate occasions:
1. isitcredible.com/cases
2. unherd.com/newsroom/the...
3. github.com/James-Traina...
4. blog.albertkuo.me/post/2024-01...
Andy Burnham backs proportional representation for Westminster with a Labour manifesto commitment if he becomes leader. He also says he would work with the Greens. My interview for @theobserveruk.bsky.social Walk observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte
open.substack.com/pub/alexande...
observer.co.uk
On a stroll through Makerfield, the Greater Manchester mayor tells Rachel Sylvester what his father’s Alzheimer’s revealed about social care, and how to restore trust in democracy and government
