and here!
liberalartsledger.substack.com/p/the-earnin...
Many more weeds-y details in the posts!
Here...
liberalartsledger.substack.com/p/dear-theat...
Want to predict how your program might do? Check out the dataset I put together that shows median earnings and match rates between graduates and earnings from Scorecard data, and graduation cohort sizes from IPEDS.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Small programs' graduates get aggregated together across cohorts, so one bad year triggers failures in a streak.
That's how a program that should pass the test could instead lose its access to federal student loans.
A program with 30 graduates per cohort needs to earn $9,406 more than the high school grad benchmark to be 95% sure they won't fail the Earnings Test over the next 5 years.
The Department of Education says only 1% of programs at Top 100 liberal arts colleges will fail the OBBB Earnings Test.
My simulations predict the true risks are a lot higher than that.
Check it out #EconSky, new post at the Liberal Arts Ledger!
liberalartsledger.substack.com/p/the-earnin...
Hey #EconSky, my Substack is back!
Starting with pedagogy this week.
Next up: A deep dive into that Earnings Test in the One Big Beautiful Bill
liberalartsledger.substack.com/p/five-books...
Hey #EconSky hive mind: there was a paper recently about peer effects in video game usage between college roommates. Help me find it?
Econ of Ed (and other) friends: what are the best studies linking in-college interventions to labor market outcomes? Especially interested in those that improve outcomes via different mechanism than completion. E.g. if a college wants to improve earnings of grads, what should they do?