I think for specialists it's also a very good chance to compare the state-space model approach with the modelling of bsky.app/profile/pymc...
I also encourage people to read the paper that makes the inference possible on our side:
arxiv.org/abs/2308.02414
A British friend texted me that PinkPantheress’ dad is a statistician. Stephen G. Walker is a Bayesian. This is our chance to make Bayesian nonparametrics mainstream. Looking at you @isba-bayesian.bsky.social.
Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A....
The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.
Now on the state-space-models repo state-space-models.github.io/cuthberto-ca...
How dare you exploit academic labor; that’s our job!
Often maths is more about finding the right definition than actually proving the theorem.
I think this didn't get nearly enough traction. Sam did some fantastic work here leveraging the library we've been developing to make predictions for football. This was ported to a UI by Ryan Chan (Warwick MSc student) who's doing his thesis with me (on the methods behind the prediction).
My name is Bon. Jam Bon.
martynplummer.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/j...
👏 Folks! If you are curious about the Generative Modeling via Drifting paper, but you find it difficult to understand → I wrote a different interpretation of it.
It's called: "An Expectation-Maximization interpretation of Generative Modeling via Drifting"
davidpicard.github.io/pdf/An_Expec...
Adrien Corenflos
Mine Doğucu
Matti Vihola
Sam Duffield
doi.org
We summarise popular methods used for skill rating in competitive sports, along with their inferential paradigms and introduce new approaches based on sequential Monte Carlo and discrete hidden Markov...
Elsevier has joined a class-action lawsuit against Meta, marking the first time a major scientific publisher has sued over AI training data. The filing alleges Meta used unauthorized copies of paywalled papers and abstracts (from Common Crawl and Sci-Hub) to develop its Llama models.
#AcademicSky
JAGS 5.0.0-beta is now available from SourceForge. The beta release is for two groups of people: People who have written software depending on JAGS, in particular authors of R packages that depend …
The World Cup is about to start, I wrote a model using cuthbert to predict the games, check out cuthberto-carlos 🐛⚽ ryantjx.github.io/cuthberto-ca...
Under these assumptions, we get a very simple proof of convergence, with a nice clean rate, and with lots of flexibility to account for e.g. local convergence, non-smoothness, and so on.
New PyMC model forecasts the entire 2026 World Cup group stage: scorelines and advancement odds for all 48 teams.
Opening day it nailed Mexico 2-0 and Korea 2-1. England, Spain, and Brazil lead; Group D is chaos.
Read the full blog here: dub.sh/hBW61BZ
#PyMC #WorldCup2026
The casting search for the next actor to play James Bond is officially underway, with Variety reporting that Nina Gold has been hired as the casting director for James Bond 26, which is said to be looking for a "fresh face" to play 007. https://bit.ly/4dcbcWd
Scott McGrath
Sam Duffield
Sam Power
IGN
PyMC Labs
Science publishing giant Elsevier has joined a class action lawsuit against Meta that alleges the reproduction of copyrighted works in developing the Llama AI model.
