Decision Desk HQ has all the details about key primaries happening today in ME, SC, ND & NV. Find the link below for our preview.
A big one is the #SCGov GOP primary. Trump endorsed Evette but polls show a complete jumble headed for a runoff. But which 2 contenders will advance?
In the much-watched Los Angeles mayoral primary, incumbent Karen Bass is projected to advance. TBD on who will join her in November, though Spencer Pratt looks most likely.
Link below for Decision Desk HQ's roundup of yesterday's primary elections around the country.
Decision Desk HQ breaks down what to watch in the June 9 primaries. Find the link below.
In Maine, will Graham Platner's (D) many controversies weaken his primary showing, foreshadowing future trouble? He leads Sen. Susan Collins (R) 48%-44% in DDHQ's polling average.
In yesterday's Nebraska primary, Dan Osborn & Democrats got what they wanted in the Senate race.
Pro-Osborn candidates won the Democratic & Legalize Marijuana Now primaries. If they withdraw, Osborn will face Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) in a one-on-one clash that could help decide control of the Senate.
What happened last night in Louisiana's GOP primary for Senate? The Mardi Gras Lady sang for Sen. Bill Cassidy.
Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow led with 45% & Treasurer John Fleming grabbed 2nd with 28%. Cassidy only got 25%. Letlow & Fleming now go to a June 27 runoff.
Democrats need to win 7 of 11 key races to win Senate majority in 2026.
Right now, they lead 2 with substantial polling, up in 3 others with limited data.
Vibes & prediction markets: Democrats are even money to win the Senate
Reality: GOP is still favored (at least for now)
Democrats' Senate vibes are soaring. But today's DDHQ newsletter provides a reality check: Republicans are still somewhat favored to hold onto the Senate.
Valadao is now at 41% in the top-two primary results, which is an extremely bad sign for the GOP in this seat.
If Valadao won after this, it would be the lowest % for a winning incumbent party in a top-two congressional primary in CA (since 2012) or WA (since 2008).
Dan Osborn (Ind) is running for #NESen again. To win, he must improve on 2024, when he lost by 7 points while Kamala Harris lost by 21.
Osborn got close by running farther ahead of Harris outside Omaha+Lincoln. Take this Falls City precinct in southeast NE: Trump+37 / Osborn+1!
Decision Desk HQ dug into the big June 9 primary results:
In #MESen Democratic primary, Graham Platner won with 72%. That share did not differ much from the 76% he garnered in a late May poll by UNH that predated his latest scandals.
Read our roundup:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/june-9-pri...
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Geoffrey Skelley
Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ
Vibes are getting ahead of reality when it comes to rating the Democrats' chances of capturing the Senate
GOP Rep. David Valadao is at just 42% with roughly 72% of votes counted.
The GOP has always been >50% in round 1 in his prior House races, & GOP support typically declines in November with higher turnout.
This heavily Latino seat passed Prop 50 by 18 points in 2025, & Dems look favored to flip it
Stephen Wolf
Democrat Randy Villegas declares victory in #CA22, which would set up a general election against GOP Rep. David Valadao. No AP call yet, but Villegas has a 31-27 lead over the second-place Dem, Jasmeet Bains, that isn't likely to go away.
