And yet they were repeated not only by various media outlets, politicians, and activists, they were also amplified by current and former UN officials
“This politicization of the death toll number will undoubtedly cast a shadow over... the events of Jan. 8-9.”
@msjamshidi.bsky.social takes an in-depth look at the death toll of Iran’s protests & explains why it can undermine accountability for the violence that happened.
zeteo.com/p/where-did-...
As I argue in the piece, these unreliable numbers - even if they are ultimately proven to be accurate or close to accurate - will undermine efforts at accountability for the events of January 8-9, which are vital for Iran’s future
(the two most prominent haven't published figures for months….)
This is a 5000+ word piece. I tried to be meticulous and fair in my analysis and based on my knowledge and expertise in evidence gathering relating to serious international crimes
The 5 digit death toll #s came out fast and furious within days of the Jan 8-9 protests, notwithstanding a total internet blackout inside Iran. They were primarily pushed by 2 actors described in the piece, both of whom have long supported regime change & a return of the Shah
What is also striking is how these numbers have come to dominate public discourse, inside and outside Iran about the number of people killed. They displaced more reliable numbers gathered by NGOs and may have even convinced them to stop confirming the death toll
Had a wide-ranging convo w/ @thecradlemedia.bsky.social abt Iran’s reg of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. blockade, secondary sanctions, and the rhetoric & legal issues surrounding the so-called “shadow fleet.” Would love any feedback or thoughts u have about the convo www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEZ-...
I wrote a piece about the evidentiary problems w/claims that 30,000-40,000 protestors were killed in Iran in 2 days in Jan. There is no doubt the bloodshed was significant. But the evidence supporting these specific numbers is unreliable /n msjamshidi.substack.com/p/how-unreli...
As I describe in the piece, the numbers pushed by these actors failed to satisfy minimum best practices on casualty figure counting established by reputable orgs like the Intl Committee of the Red Cross. Much of the evidence comes second or third hand & has not been corroborated
