Climate Data Scientist working on natural hazards and climate risk in the property sector. Interested in the science of water, climate, cities, and landscapes, also dogs. Opinions are solely my own.
Lawrence Vulis
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Bear with me here, I'm thinking out loud. Total global petroleum liquids demand pre crisis was roughly 105mm bpd. Of that roughly 21mm bpd went through Hormuz. So we need to make up 21mm bpd.
Iran's illicit flows were 2mm bpd earlier now call it 1mm, that's probably optimistic but whatever.
George Pearkes
a VLCC is ~2m bbl, so that's 50 transits - not impossible for dark transits and/or iranian ships but, like, it's at the outer bound of how much has been slipping through
also given prior flows were something like 21m bbl/day, uh, congrats, that's 5 days worth of normal flow
Is all of this sustainable? Not really no. But I think you can make an argument that there is a lot less inventory pressure than there looks like there should be. And incidentally this is all consistent with how markets are moving.
These views are wild
Sky Marchini
Upside of taking Amtrak in SoCal is not dealing with the 5/405, downsides are it takes 3 hours to get to downtown LA and 2 hours to OC, and in OC you almost always need a car afterwards. Now if UCI would run a regular bus service to the train station it'd be simple.
Surfliner services about 2M riders a year or 5,600 a day. Even taking a bit longer than driving with zero traffic, this train is pretty packed!
Transit nerd posting but this is my first time in the observation car. Holy cow you get to see the ocean from this? And not sit in traffic?
