Inlay

Profile

Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Young Academy Ireland muellerstefan.net

Stefan Müller

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

🔵 DUBLIN CENTRAL FULL TALLY Ennis (SD) 19.68% Boylan (SF) 17.72% Horner (Grn) 11.48% Hutch (Ind) 11.46% McAdam (FG) 10.61% Steenson (Ind) 9.51% O Ceannabhain (PBPS) 6.73% O'Dea (Lab) 5.75% Stephens (FF) 4.16% Smyth (Aon) 2.02% bit.ly/DublinCentra...

Dublin gangland figure brings extremist views to Irish mainstream on campaign trail

One week to go until the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections. I’ve wrangled, merged, and analysed various datasets to describe what a century of bye-elections can tell us about Irish politics. @news.rte.ie ➡️ www.rte.ie/news/analysi...

18d

20d

Of the 137 winners of contested Dáil by-elections, 11 have started with first preference vote below 25%. Only one below 20%: current Ind Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice was elected having received 18.7% of first prefs in Roscommon–South Leitrim S 2014. Maybe this record could be challenged on 22 May?

Updated pollingindicator.com estimates after adding the most recent Ireland Thinks and RedC polls: SF: 22% [20.5–23] FG: 17% [15.5–18.5] FF: 16% [15–17] Ind/Oth: 12.5% [11–13.5] SD: 10% [9–11.5] II: 8% [7–9] AÚ: 5.5% [4.5–6] LAB: 3.5% [3–4] GP: 3.5% [3–4] SPBP: 2% [1.5–2.5]

Werner Krause