Research Associate at CNS | Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter
Sam Lair
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More strikes at Kashan
Tunnel entrances hit, along with more support buildings. Looks like the base has been pretty extensively damaged.
Thanks as always to our friends @planet.com for the imagery.
Looks like one of my slides made it into this Space Force brief on how to annotate imagery! Glad to see they liked it as much as I did
Also seems like the slides just endorse careful language for photo interpretation fwiw. Gotta respect analytic tradecraft
The team(slair.bsky.social, @duitsmanms.bsky.social others) spent the last few weeks examining this video showing a U.S. Patriot launch in Bahrain. We're confident this interceptor was involved in the explosion over Sitra that damaged 60 residences and injured more than 30 people.
Aid to Ukraine from 2022-2026 was a rounding error. We used more in the first two weeks of the Iran war than we provided in the 4 years of aid to Ukraine.
North Korea claims it test-fired 12 nuclear-capable 600mm MLRS Salvo rockets on March 14, striking a target island in the East Sea at 364.4 km range with 100% accuracy.
Launch site geolocated to Sunan Airport (순안국제공항), Pyongyang, at 39.26°N, 125.68°E
The damage to Shahroud is extensive
More or less every building in the solid motor production lines was damaged, many destroyed. Several mixing & casting buildings, along with what might be non-destructive testing & premix buildings.
Thanks to our partners @airbus.com for the image
Thank you to @slair.bsky.social and @bcfinucane.bsky.social for taking the time to provide their expertise for this piece.
Sam Lair
Sam Lair
Sam Lair
Alexander Lemos Berg
Trevor Ball
Jeffrey Lewis
Kori Schake
Shiraz north missile base struck.
Tunnel entrances extensively targeted, and scorch marks along the roads indicate damaged vehicles, probably more TEL plinking. No real damage to support buildings.
Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the imagery!
Sam Lair
We also have a write-up online. Absent debris from an Iranian drone, it looks very much like a Patriot misfire. If it was deliberate, the intercept attempt looks rather irresponsible and out of character with what we know about how CENTCOM operates.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
Our findings are discussed in this @reuters.com story by
@jonathanlanday.bsky.social, MB Pell and Travis Hartman, with some incredible graphics from @sarahcahlan.bsky.social.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
Jeffrey Lewis
Video
Jeffrey Lewis
Kashan missile base hit
At least two vehicles damaged leaving scorch marks, one support building destroyed. This is one of the regional-range bases used during True Promise II to target Israel. Unsurprising it got hit early
Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the imagery
Video
Confirmed first damage to the Iranian solid propellant missile plant at Shahroud
Casting and mixing buildings were damaged, along with parts of what the IDF alleges is a warhead production line.
Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the imagery!
Sam Lair
Video
Sam Lair
Bellingcat has geolocated eight videos showing US Tomahawks cruise missiles in Iraq heading towards Iran. The missiles appear to be flying low across valleys and were most likely fired from the Mediterranean sea, an expert told us.
www.bellingcat.com/news/middle-...
🚨 US military document leaked to shows how the Pentagon is working with private companies to manipulate the information you see about the Iran war
www.kenklippenstein.com/p/leaked-doc...
Hegseth: "We're still dealing with the environment Joe Biden created—depleting our stockpiles and sending them to Ukraine instead of our own military. Every time we face a challenge, it traces back to 'Well, sent it to Ukraine.'"
It looks like they’re just going to blame Ukraine
Kate from Kharkiv
An American-operated Patriot air defense battery likely fired the interceptor missile involved in a pre-dawn explosion that injured dozens of civilians and tore through homes in U.S.-ally Bahrain 10 d...
www.reuters.com
This is the longer analysis of a news story (“Patriot Missile Involved in Bahrain Blast Likely U.S. Operated, Analysis Finds,”) we did with [...]
