Mathematical modeller / epidemiologist / ex-ecologist at Imperial College London.
https://thomrawson.github.io/
Thom Rawson
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New paper out! Arctic tundra shrubs keep records of beaver colonisation ❄️🦫🌿✏️
Our new study in Ecosphere used shrub growth rings & satellite imagery to reconstruct past beaver colonisation at the northern edge of their range in Arctic Canada.
🔗 doi.org/10.1002/ecs2...
@esajournals.bsky.social
Thanks to all collaborators on this project.
This manuscript was written almost entirely to the sound of "Here in the Pitch" by Jessica Pratt. Beautiful album I can strongly recommend.
open.spotify.com/album/3sxWkh...
There's been one national intervention - testing cows that move from one state to another (no federal restrictions on movements within a state!). Our study shows that this has simply not been enough, and will have only prevent a small number of additional outbreaks.
Engagement with the farming community has been a big problem. The previous administration implemented a free milk testing programme - any farm can get their milk tested for H5N1 for free! Over 36,000 dairy herds in the country, how many do you think signed up for testing? Answer - 75...
Based on the movement data, we would expect a lot more herd outbreaks, in a lot more states. The vast majority of outbreaks have been in California. Is California just unlucky? No, they're simply identifying more outbreaks. Wisconsin and Florida in particular are particularly bizarre omissions.
Our modelling paper synthesises data on the movement of cattle across the country. Dairy cows get moved around A LOT. By moving infected cattle from one state to another, cows are infecting new herds in new states via shared milking equipment.
We discovered this is just the tip of the iceberg...
Super thrilled to say our study "A Mathematical Model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle" is now live in Nature Comms.
doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z
Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵
