i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers
polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news
formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
G Elliott Morris
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Yes, Americans are polarized. But there can still be big swings in voter behavior between elections. How do we solve this puzzle? www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-06-09...
two things to remember here:
(1) it is indisputable at this point that partisan identity & affect shape responses to consumer-sentiment surveys more than in the past
(2) it is a step too far however to conclude that *all* expressed negative economic sentiment is vibes with no connection to reality
As companies begin to sell synthetic (AI-generated) survey responses, new research with @gelliottmorris.com and Ben Leff shows why you should be extremely skeptical of this approach:
www.verasight.io/reports/can-...
This chart from the latest YouGov/Economist poll result is really quite stunning. Trump’s net approval is not only deeply negative, but about 15(!!) points below what it was at this point in 2018, putting the GOP deeper in blue wave territory now vs then substack.com/@gelliottmor...
We welcome comments on our AI polling research!
would love to see gallup update this chart for 2026
news.gallup.com/poll/651092/...
A popular measure of intra-party loyalty in polls artificially inflates electoral stability and ignores the crucial role that turnout plays in close races
Americans say keeping up with key news topics is crucial. But fewer say they’re highly informed themselves www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Democrats were at D+6 this point in 2018. Now they are rounding up to D+7 in our average blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/the-democr...
New report out today with my friends at Verasight writing up a couple new studies I designed on AI “digital twins” in polling. The upshot is basically these tools are very inaccurate unless you have raw polling data to build on (which defeats the purpose!)
I did the math: Here's exactly how James Talarico can beat Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate race. (He doesn't need as many Trump voters as conventional wisdom dictates.)
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-01-01...
G Elliott Morris
Verasight ran four experiments on AI "digital twins." Synthetic samples can match polls on Trump approval and the generic ballot, but fail systematically on almost everything else.
Verasight ran four experiments on AI "digital twins." Synthetic samples can match polls on Trump approval and the generic ballot, but fail systematically on almost everything else.
www.verasight.io
The math isn't as hard as people think. Democrats need to flip about 1 in 15 Republicans — turnout and independents do the rest.
Consumer sentiment at all-time lows. Inflation expectations rising. What that means for the economy and monetary policy will be fiercely debated. The Michigan Survey is a key source.
What if it's just a political survey now? I disagree, but I'm worried. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
Thanks, Elliott. We really enjoyed working with you on this one, and we welcome any questions or feedback as more people get a chance to read it.
