two things to remember here:
(1) it is indisputable at this point that partisan identity & affect shape responses to consumer-sentiment surveys more than in the past
(2) it is a step too far however to conclude that *all* expressed negative economic sentiment is vibes with no connection to reality
[Christopher M. Federico]
Consumer sentiment at all-time lows. Inflation expectations rising. What that means for the economy and monetary policy will be fiercely debated. The Michigan Survey is a key source.
What if it's just a political survey now? I disagree, but I'm worried. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
A time of disruption is a time when expectations can play an outsized role in shaping the economy’s path.
