macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.
Claudia Sahm
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Kevin Warsh, extolling the virtues of the trimmed mean (be wary), nudged me toward looking at the distribution of inflation. I would agree that it's a useful exercise, but the story — tariffs, energy, AI — comes out similar to Powell's approach to these supply shocks.
Project 2025 is coming to the Fed. What could possibly go wrong?
Can anyone think of something that happened since January that might have made Waller more hawkish? WSJ Editorial Board seems to have missed it. www.wsj.com/opinion/kevi...
Claudia Sahm
Tomorrow's CPI headlines are likely to be discouraging. But my new post argues we should look under the headline at the distribution of inflation. So far, the heat is in the tails — narrow categories, not broad-based. Worth a watchful eye.
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Consumer sentiment at all-time lows. Inflation expectations rising. What that means for the economy and monetary policy will be fiercely debated. The Michigan Survey is a key source.
What if it's just a political survey now? I disagree, but I'm worried. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/consumer-s...
Claudia Sahm
Claudia Sahm
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Wyoming Star explores the domestic fallout of the Iran War with @deanbaker13.bsky.social, @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, AAF's Dr. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, @kkondik.bsky.social, and @mccaininstitute.bsky.social's Dr. Evelyn Farkas.
wyomingstarnews.org/2026/05/27/e...
#USA #politics #economy #analytics
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently argued for alternative ways of looking at inflation, such as trimmed means or medians, which, in his words, capture the “underlying inflation rate” and “not … the one-ti...
