From Zachary Donnini, our Head of Data Science: "Out of the Top 9 best Democratic candidates in remotely competitive 2024 U.S. House races, NONE of them were White men.
We need to put to bed the idea that only White men can win elections for Democrats, the data just doesn’t support it at all. 🧵
🚨 We have completed our interactive precinct-level map of the IL-09 Democratic primary.
Explore detailed results for every part of the district, from McHenry County to the city of Chicago, including vote density visualization in 3D. ⬇️
Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 41%, erasing a short-lived bump in the aftermath of Ali Khamenei's assassination.
Net approval
14-day change: 🔻 -2.2
YTD change: 🔻 -3.0
BREAKING — Donald Trump will now be represented by a Democrat in the Florida State House.
Democrats flip Trump+11 FL HD-87 in a major upset, continuing their recent special election surge. It’s their third flip this month — and eighth of the Trump presidency.
Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a second-term low of about 40%. His net approval stands at -16, a drop of more than 4 points this month.
Republicans have not led in a hypothetical Alaska U.S. Senate general election poll since last summer.
Recent surveys:
3/22 (ASR): 🔵 Peltola +5 (RCV)
1/17 (PPP): 🔵 Peltola +2
1/11 (ASR): 🔵 Peltola +2
11/13 (Tyson): 🔵 D +4
10/23 (DFP): 🔵 Peltola +1
10/15 (ASR): 🔵 Peltola +2
"Yes, being a strong candidate for the U.S. House isn’t the same as being a strong presidential candidate. But if you wonder what wins federal elections, a good place to start is with the candidates who are actually winning them. Not just randomly guessing based on vibes.
"Top 9: Christina Bohannan, Cleo Fields, Trisha Calvarese, Mary Peltola, Janelle Stelson, Kristen McDonald Rivet, Jonathan Nez, Grace Meng, Henry Cuellar.
Data from Lakshya Jain:
split-ticket.org/2024-house-w...
