Again, the very high probability outcome is a Democratic win & power transfer, but we still need to take seriously the low-but-unacceptably-nonzero probability that either/both the actual elections or the Jan 2027/9 post-election events will not happen as the laws & Constitution say that they will.
Mark Copelovitch
Look, by far the most likely outcome is still that Dems win in 2026 in a landslide, because Real Folkz hate fascism & these guys are Not Very Bright & things have gotten Out Of Hand.
But if you still think unprecedentedly authoritarian stuff is crazy & not a nonzero probability, I just don’t know 🤷♂️
Mark Copelovitch
The common 🧵 in every single election, from Susan Crawford in Wisconsin to Zohran Mamdani in NYC to Taylor Rehmet in Texas, is that a clear majority of voters don't like evil, hate, incompetence, & far right authoritarianism. The policy details are election-specific, but that's the hummable tune.
Mark Copelovitch
Data / quant note: What model or message testing predicted how public opinion would shift 32 points in one year in this Texas seat?
None. No quant data could solely determine the correct message for this, no linear model could based on ad tests or issue polls.
Mark Histed
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/blue-wave-...
