An observation not necessarily an analogy/prediction: in November/December 2000 there was noise about how Bush/Gore uncertainty was contributing to stock market weakness. In 2007/08 commodities were still strong even as housing was rolling over. Now oil/Iran are overshadowing tech stock weakness.
When there are competing storylines for attention sometimes the one with immediate urgency overshadows the longer-term deteriorating one that ultimately matters more to the economy/markets.
If you knew nothing about what was going on in the world other than this chart you'd be wondering if the economy was rolling over:
So at the moment, it seems like Trump is willing to say he’s accomplished regime change, doesn’t need the Strait, and seemingly isn’t going after the uranium…so what exactly is the goal here
Pretty big drop in the odds of SpaceX announcing an IPO before July 1st since last night: