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Nuffield College, Oxford Co-Director, British Election Study Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre President, British Polling Council Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …

Jane Green

That difference is what happens when appeal isn’t really ideological at all. When you stop picking which voters to chase and appeal broadly on non-divisive criteria. Going left or going right just isn’t the point! It’s been too beset with trade-offs.

What is mightily confusing is whether Burnham, as an outsider and Labour candidate, could benefit from local incumbency credit AND benefit from national Labour incumbency blame…🤯

I explain why Labours vote is splintering left, why the Tories lost so much to Reform, how the latter are more vulnerable than assumed, why we cannot know if Burnham would improve Labours ratings as PM. BUT …. the ways it *could* potentially happen.

I remember the days when within party differences 'on Europe' were incredibly common in mainstream parties. And not everyone in Reform supports Brexit, certainly not now, nor in Makerfield. Just saying!

Random Sunday thought… You can’t think ‘Burnham isn’t really behind Manchester’s growth etc and so won’t get / doesn’t deserve credit on June 18th’ AND think ‘the current government will get clobbered for inflation due to Iran’. If things get better/worse, incumbents usually get credit/blame.

With the caveat that marginality can now be calculated several ways…it isn’t at all straightforward to reconcile a Burnham win in Makerfield with Reform being on track for a (narrow) majority. Yes, the by election is different. But not *so* different that it wouldn’t show what is still possible.

@ukandeu.bsky.social coined 18 June: "Make or break-erfield" Perfection...

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💥 NEW PODCAST 💥 On this episode of the UK in a Changing Europe podcast, @anandmenon.bsky.social is joined by @profjanegreen.bsky.social for a discussion on all the latest in British politics 🎧 Listen now ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/pol...

Absolutely crucial piece of research on misinformation in local news on Facebook, X and Nextdoor by @smfthinktank.bsky.social Full report is here (www.smf.co.uk/publications...) but these are some key findings:

Jane Green

Fragmentation, volatility and voter disillusionment are striking features of British politics. On this episode of the UK in a Changing Europe podcast,...

Politics, polls and the public: what's next for British politics? - UK in a changing Europe

ukandeu.ac.uk

I'm going to go out on a limb and say he isn't actually sorry.

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