The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 led to a 72 percent relative increase in bilateral exports for affected country pairs and a likely permanent increase in world trade, from David S. Jacks, Christopher M. Meissner, and Nikolaus Wolf https://www.nber.org/papers/w33250
An overview of alternative theories on the causes and nature of large economic fluctuations, from Joseph E. Stiglitz https://www.nber.org/papers/w33218
I am big fan of the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. Both of which sounds too good to be true.