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New review paper on "The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements" Main points: Overshooting 1.5°C raises risks of irreversible Earth-system tipping, which depends on peak warming and more so on how long critical thresholds are exceeded. doi.org/10.1088/1748...
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The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Ritchie, Paul D L, Steinert, Norman J, Abrams, Jesse F, Alkhayuon, Hassan, Arnscheidt, Constantin W, Bochow, Nils, Chapman, Ruth R, Clarke, Joseph, Dennis, Donovan P, Donges, Jonathan F, Flores, Bernardo M, Garbe, Julius, Högner, Annika, Huntingford, Chris, Lenton, Timothy M, Lohmann, Johannes, Lux-Gottschalk, Kerstin, Milkoreit, Manjana, Möller, Tessa, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Pereira, Laura, Quinn, Courtney, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Stuenzi, Simone M, Swingedouw, Didier, Van der Laan, Larissa N, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Wunderling, Nico
iopscience.iop.org
The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review
Norman J. Steinert