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It also shows that considering the permafrost carbon-climate feedback shrinks the temperature 'safe zone' for tipping risks in climate overshoot scenarios.

✨ New preprint out! ✨ Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere 🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...

Preprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

New review paper on "The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements" Main points: Overshooting 1.5°C raises risks of irreversible Earth-system tipping, which depends on peak warming and more so on how long critical thresholds are exceeded. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot? --> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

New paper out today with @benmsanderson.bsky.social, where we quantify the contriution of the permafrost carbon feedback to TCRE and ZEC under uncertainty. Check it out here: doi.org/10.5194/esd-...

Many climate models omit the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. In this new paper we show that inlcuding it can increase Earth system tipping risks, especially in overshoot scenarios with peak temperatures below 3°C or peak cumulative emissions of below 2000 PgC. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025 global-tipping-points.org Our chapter on the "Implications of overshooting 1.5°C for Earth system tipping points" is based on an associated paper: doi.org/10.31223/X52... Minimizing climate overshoot is essential to prevent climate tipping points.

Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

New preprint in Earth System Dynamics: When will the northern high latitudes become a net carbon source? We evaluate using policy relevant SSP scenarios including overshoot, explicitly representing permafrost🌳❄️🔥🏔️ ➡️ doi.org/10.5194/egus... @njsteinert.bsky.social @mathisoncamilla.bsky.social

Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks, Steinert, Norman J, Munday, Gregory, Sandstad, Marit, Sanderson, Benjamin M, Wunderling, Nico

Abstract. Conventional climate scenarios omit fast-timescale human-system dynamics like policy rollback or economic shocks. The climate system's slow response to GHG emissions allows these `fast' ter...

Abstract. Under historical warming, terrestrial ecosystems within the northern high latitudes have been a net carbon sink, providing vital mitigation against anthropogenic emissions of CO2. However, t...

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Ritchie, Paul D L, Steinert, Norman J, Abrams, Jesse F, Alkhayuon, Hassan, Arnscheidt, Constantin W, Bochow, Nils, Chapman, Ruth R, Clarke, Joseph, Dennis, Donovan P, Donges, Jonathan F, Flores, Bernardo M, Garbe, Julius, Högner, Annika, Huntingford, Chris, Lenton, Timothy M, Lohmann, Johannes, Lux-Gottschalk, Kerstin, Milkoreit, Manjana, Möller, Tessa, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Pereira, Laura, Quinn, Courtney, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Stuenzi, Simone M, Swingedouw, Didier, Van der Laan, Larissa N, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Wunderling, Nico

Abstract. Resolved spatial information for climate change projections is critical to any robust assessment of climate impacts and adaptation options. However, the range of spatially resolved future sc...

Abstract. As permafrost thaws, the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) can amplify the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) and the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) by introduc...

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...