To hold $135 at a generous 30x multiple, SpaceX needs ~$60B of annual net income. Last year it lost $4.9B. So it needs $65B in profit, somehow building out of thin air the profits of Bank of America ($30B) + Exxon ($25B) + Netflix ($11B). For reference, Tesla is a mere $4B.
What an opportunity!
/9
I can't wait for SpaceX to be liquidated and the technology they developed sold off cheaply
Hi! I'm Bret Rhett Chet, here to tell you why you should buy and hodl SpaceX stonk. For a mere $135/share, you get pro forma tangible book value of $7.85/share, an immediate 94% dilution. New investors are putting up 48% of all capital ever invested in SpaceX in exchange for 4.2% of the shares.
/1
Been meaning to bring this particular sketch to your notice, which seems to capture the essential spirit of the SpaceX IPO
"Is this like the scandal with the tulips?"
"Oh no. Then there were actually some tulips..."
this thread answers the question "what if the SpaceX IPO roadshow were honest?"
On the money
I'm supposed to say SpaceX was profitable in 2024, but it wasn't, that $791M profit included a $659M non-cash tax benefit, fully reversed in 2025.
Operating income: +$466M ('24), -$2.6B ('25), -$1.9B (Q1 '26).
Net loss: $4.9B last year, $4.3B in Q1 2026 alone, all to poison Black neighborhoods.
/3
SpaceX's $1.8T "valuation" isn't real, it's manufactured by a tiny 4.2% public float. $1.8T is ~95x SpaceX's trailing revenue. Google IPO'd at ~7x revenue, Facebook at ~20x. This is Snowflake's multiple stapled to Rivian's capital burn, a combo with a flawless record of bagholders.
/2
Starlink makes money, but it topped out and has to discount for new subscribers, ARPU fell from $99 to $66. On the rocket side, customer launches collapsed from 43 to 7 in a quarter (revenue -42%), the rockets mostly carry SpaceX's own satellites now. MechaHitler incinerates all profits anyway.
/6
25. February 2022, Danish newspaper @information.dk "Most observers of international politics conduct their analyses based on an assumption that actors act rationally, that they carefully weigh benefits and costs, and pursue clear interests".
We've learned some hard lessons about Russia since then.