Haruspicy will abound next week as analysts inspect the entrails of this weekend's Nepean by-election trying to divine prospects for November's Victorian state election. And next week's Farrer by-election. #springst #nepean antonygreen.com.au/vic2026-nepe...
he electoral version of "doing a Bradbury". Independent Lou Nicholson wins the South Australian seat of Finniss from fourth place after the distribution of preferences. #auspol antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-finni...
The how-to-votes are out for the SA election. Does it matter what they recommend? Check out my post from December with full detail on whether voters followed HTVs in 2022 including a link to detailed analysis of 2022 preference flows. antonygreen.com.au/do-how-to-vo...
A record 388 candidates to contest the lower House of Assembly at the South Australian election on 21 March. That's an average of 8.3 candidates per seat. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-close...
Early voting going gangbusters for the SA election. With two days to go, numbers have passed total for 2022. This is first SA election where Early votes will be counted on the night. This post has the early and postal numbers plus detailed figures by district. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-track...
As counting winds up for the South Australian election, it looks like fourth placed Independent candidate Lou Nicholson will win the seat of Finniss. I explain why it happened in this post. But it won't be a win from the lowest primary vote.
From antonygreen.com.au
A big win for Labor at the SA election but a warning in the result detail. Swings to Labor in Liberal and Labor marginal seats, but big swings against Labor and to One Nation in Labor's safe seats. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-huge-...
While writs have been returned for the SA election, the discovery of an unopened absent early ballot box from Port Pirie is causing problems. The votes match the roll mark-off, with 81 for Narungga where One Nation won by 58 votes. I've just posted on the subject. antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-it-tu...
The graph below with its non-existent parties caused much mirth. But the analysis in the article has a number of faults including assertions about strong flows of Green preferences to One Nation at the SA election. antonygreen.com.au/the-financia...
88% of Green preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 election but not by "deals". Green voters reflexively preference Labor which shows up in seats like Fremantle where the Greens didn't recommend preference to Labor but the Independent still lost. antonygreen.com.au/do-greens-vo...
Just when you thought counting was over for the SA election, it turns out another box of absent early votes has been located. The votes were cast at the Port Pirie Early Voting Centre in the electo…
antonygreen.com.au
One Nation’s polling surge has triggered an intense dissection of recent election results. One Nation made the final preference count at the recent Farrer by-election. One Nation also finishe…
