Iran doesn’t need to win the war. It just needs to survive it.
Ariane Tabatabai and Madison Rinder explain how Iran’s asymmetric doctrine is holding up—and what a post war Iran builds toward, including (possibly) a nuclear weapon.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/will...
On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with @nkorpett.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social and Joel Braunold to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including the war with Iran, the U.S.-European transatlantic relationship, and more. youtu.be/XOS-Kxz0K-Y
"Rather than fragmenting the EU and empowering nationalist governments, U.S. interventions have thus far helped further consolidate Europe’s political identity and commitment to greater strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the United States," writes @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.
On this week's Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with @lapatina.bsky.social, @tylermcbrien.com, and @atabatabai.bsky.social to discuss the week's national security news including Russia's ground offensive in Ukraine, a potential U.S.-Iran deal, and more. youtu.be/ttav_hw9PCs
@atabatabai.bsky.social and I examine how Ukraine-Gulf counter-drone cooperation may be the first visible node in a new network emerging among U.S. partners-one Washington didn't design and doesn't yet know how to engage. The U.S. should figure out how to be a proactive participant in that network.
Iran has the ability to quickly rebuild at least parts of its military when the war ends, the Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social tells @theguardian.com: “Their whole military doctrine is based on building and deploying capabilities that they can acquire and maintain and use on the cheap.”
With distrust deepening, can the United States and Iran reach a deal? The Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social weighs in on how much progress the Trump administration has made toward achieving its objectives and how the war with Iran is likely to end.
bit.ly/4w3mtzA
The deal would mean:
- An emboldened and radicalized regime
- Likely intention to develop a nuke
- Ability to rebuild military capabilities
Costs?
- 1000s of lives throughout the region
- Economic damage it’ll take months to undo
- Military capabilities we’ll need years to rebuild/restock
3/ If we take the admin’s own (shifting) objectives for these operations, it’s hard to see this episode—the war and the deal that ended it—as anything but a colossal failure.
But there is no quick solution here. And the admin lacks the attention span and is already onto its next target, Cuba.
Just so we’re clear, the contours of the deal with Iran, as currently outlined in the press, suggest a “more-for-less deal” that has the U.S. giving a lot for not much in return.
If a Democratic admin pursued such a deal, its members would get dragged through the street of Washington.
Lawfare
Lawfare
Lawfare
Lawfare
John Drennan
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Ariane Tabatabai
Ariane Tabatabai
Ariane Tabatabai
Video
www.lawfaremedia.org
www.lawfaremedia.org
Hungary’s April election was the clearest test—and failure—of Trump’s Europe strategy.
The United States is degrading Iran’s military capabilities. Will Iran rebuild them?
