The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.
Happy Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov Saves the World Day, everybody.
42 years ago today, Lt. Col. Petrov prevented an accidental nuclear war.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanisl...
To be fair, none of the errors involved changing the assumptions of the results. It was just that some of the arguments were too loose.
Two recent revisions have shown me how much LLMs have improved over the last year- Claude and Chat have both spotted errors in these two papers that neither they nor Refine spotted last year.
Or ignored edge cases, which actually is formally a mistake