As I explained, I think it has to with the pharmacokinetics. Xocova has a really long half life - 44 hrs. It's prescribed with a 375 mg loading dose followed by 125 mg daily. It also lasts longer, which is why "Paxlovid rebound" is common, but "Xocova rebound" is extremely rare..
meta-analyses were possible for three nasal spray ingredients - zanamivir, iota-carrageenan (brand name: ePothex), and nitric oxide (brand name: Enovid)
New on my Substack! I think I figured out why Xocova is very effective as a COVID-19 prophylactic while Paxlovid is not. Look at the pharmacokinetic profiles of the two regimens - levels of Paxlovid dip dangerously low every 12 hrs, which can allow the virus to get a foothold. Read more 👇
Xocova has been approved in Japan since 2022 for treating COVID-19, and was approved in March in Japan for prophylactic use. The FDA is currently reviewing Xocova, with an initial decision set for June 16. Sign my petition to the FDA urging approval -> www.change.org/p/urge-the-f...
On my Substack you can read about all the additional benefits of Xocova I uncovered: moreisdifferent.blog/p/japan-has-...
Thank you for reading!
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.www.metaculus.com
I've created a new @metascienceobs.bsky.social
"Bird's Eye Review" dashboard for human clinical trials on antiviral nasal sprays. Check it out ➡️ metascienceobservatory.org/birds-eye-re...
Let me know what you think! There's also a #LongCOVID dashboard too: metascienceobservatory.org/birds-eye-re...
Dan Elton
Interesting difference between Metaculus (a forecast aggregator) and Kalshi (a prediction market) regarding hantavirus… Prediction markets seem to struggle with getting low probabilities right probably because lure of a large return lures in gamblers. There may be other reasons as well.
open.substack.com/pub/moreisdi...
The story here starts with a mystery. Both in-vitro studies & clinical trials show Xocova is as effective as Paxlovid mg-per-mg for treating COVID-19. So why did Xocova achieve a 67% reduction in risk in a prophylactic trial (NEJM, 2026) while Paxlovid only 32%?
