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Science enthusiast and researcher. Founder @metascienceobs.bsky.social . I write about science, metascience, progress studies, AI, and other topics. speak the truth, even if your voice shakes. http://moreisdifferent.blog
Dan Elton
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Interesting difference between Metaculus (a forecast aggregator) and Kalshi (a prediction market) regarding hantavirus… Prediction markets seem to struggle with getting low probabilities right probably because lure of a large return lures in gamblers. There may be other reasons as well.
1mo
meta-analyses were possible for three nasal spray ingredients - zanamivir, iota-carrageenan (brand name: ePothex), and nitric oxide (brand name: Enovid)
New on my Substack! I think I figured out why Xocova is very effective as a COVID-19 prophylactic while Paxlovid is not. Look at the pharmacokinetic profiles of the two regimens - levels of Paxlovid dip dangerously low every 12 hrs, which can allow the virus to get a foothold. Read more 👇
Dan Elton
2d
1mo
On my Substack you can read about all the additional benefits of Xocova I uncovered: moreisdifferent.blog/p/japan-has-... Thank you for reading!
I've created a new @metascienceobs.bsky.social "Bird's Eye Review" dashboard for human clinical trials on antiviral nasal sprays. Check it out ➡️ metascienceobservatory.org/birds-eye-re... Let me know what you think! There's also a #LongCOVID dashboard too: metascienceobservatory.org/birds-eye-re...
open.substack.com/pub/moreisdi... The story here starts with a mystery. Both in-vitro studies & clinical trials show Xocova is as effective as Paxlovid mg-per-mg for treating COVID-19. So why did Xocova achieve a 67% reduction in risk in a prophylactic trial (NEJM, 2026) while Paxlovid only 32%?
links www.metaculus.com/questions/43... kalshi.com/markets/kxne...
1mo
2d
As I explained, I think it has to with the pharmacokinetics. Xocova has a really long half life - 44 hrs. It's prescribed with a 375 mg loading dose followed by 125 mg daily. It also lasts longer, which is why "Paxlovid rebound" is common, but "Xocova rebound" is extremely rare..
1mo
1mo
Dan Elton
Dan Elton
1mo
Dan Elton
Dan Elton
Dan Elton
Dan Elton
Dan Elton
I recently wrote a viral thread on X (also Bluesky) about Xocova, which is sometimes called the “Japanese Paxlovid”.
moreisdifferent.blog
Japan has had a better antiviral for COVID-19 since 2022, and it's high time that the FDA allowed it in the US for prophylactic use
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.
www.metaculus.com
Hantavirus PHEIC before 2027?
Xocova has been approved in Japan since 2022 for treating COVID-19, and was approved in March in Japan for prophylactic use. The FDA is currently reviewing Xocova, with an initial decision set for June 16. Sign my petition to the FDA urging approval -> www.change.org/p/urge-the-f...
1mo
Dan Elton
Urge the FDA to approve the Xocova antiviral for COVID-19
www.change.org
Sign the Petition