Inlay

So the war was quite literally pointless. All around the world they're rationing energy, there are food shortages, people are suffering and dying, all for absolutely fucking nothing.

Scary diagram on how much of our daily lives would fall apart if somehow we were cut off from US tech. Tech sovereignty and resilience is going to be costly! www.ft.com/content/4c3a...

New role model just dropped www.bbc.com/news/article...

With the resurgent interest in the nexus between policy and knowledge production, here is our open access article "The impact of colonialism on policy and knowledge production in International Relations" in @iajournal.bsky.social: academic.oup.com/ia/article/9....

Please sir, my first past the post electoral system, it is very sick.

The filth they call coffee in this country! #limitsofintegration #wutbürger

My friend @antonpeez.bsky.social and I wrote a new paper in @the-peio.bsky.social on how to use LLMs to measure revealed preferences in diplo. speeches. We use UN sanctions as a test case to illustrate the approach and offer a template for future IO/IR research. Thread below doi.org/10.1007/s115...

The academic is accused of dreaming up the prize he went on to win and has been suspended from his university.

Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said the U.S. intelligence community agreed prior to the war that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon.

Alt: Peter Finch as Howard Beale: I'm Mad as Hell

UN sanctions are an important tool for maintaining international peace and have shaped the global security order since the end of the Cold War. However, given contemporary UN Security Council (UNSC) dynamics, new sanctions regimes have become rare, and policymakers are pessimistic about the future of the tool. We evaluate this pessimism by offering a long-term perspective, analyzing all UNSC members’ positions on UN-mandated and unilateral sanctions from 1992 to 2023, introducing the UNSC Sanctions Stance Dataset. We examine 5,984 sanctions-related Council speeches using a large language model for measurement, and validate this procedure with hand coding, descriptive analyses, and expert interviews. Our description of the construction process and guidance on using LLMs for measurement serve as a template for creating LLM-coded and manually and substantively verified datasets from IO speech data. The analysis focuses on Russia, China, and the Global South, and traces their positions in detail. We find that Russia turned from limited support of UN sanctions in the 2000s to total opposition in the mid-2010s, while China has persistently been opposed, offering at most begrudging tolerance. The P3 (France, UK, US) have consistently been supportive. Meanwhile, states from the Global South hold a distinct intermediate position, opposing unilateral sanctions while cautiously but consistently supporting UN-mandated sanctions. This finding cuts against an assumption of Global South opposition to sanctions in general.

Nobody, literally nobody, could have possibly seen this coming

Multi-Domain Operations are boring Germany is laser-focused on "Multi-Temporal War", in which you can already fight today's wars by using the methods that will only be available in the distant future www.bmvg.de/resource/blo...

Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many