Prof of IPE @ Helmut Schmidt Uni Hamburg, IR stuff, 🇳🇿, 🇩🇪, DFG Heisenberg Fellow, formerly WZB Berlin, rando
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=k0d0H2QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao
sites.google.com/view/matthewstephen
https://www.china-hegemony.com/
Matthew D. Stephen
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets
In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating
Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back
1/many
Scary diagram on how much of our daily lives would fall apart if somehow we were cut off from US tech. Tech sovereignty and resilience is going to be costly!
www.ft.com/content/4c3a...
So the war was quite literally pointless. All around the world they're rationing energy, there are food shortages, people are suffering and dying, all for absolutely fucking nothing.
Please sir, my first past the post electoral system, it is very sick.
My friend @antonpeez.bsky.social and I wrote a new paper in @the-peio.bsky.social on how to use LLMs to measure revealed preferences in diplo. speeches. We use UN sanctions as a test case to illustrate the approach and offer a template for future IO/IR research. Thread below
doi.org/10.1007/s115...
With the resurgent interest in the nexus between policy and knowledge production, here is our open access article "The impact of colonialism on policy and knowledge production in International Relations" in @iajournal.bsky.social:
academic.oup.com/ia/article/9....
The filth they call coffee in this country!
#limitsofintegration #wutbürger
Lol wat
New role model just dropped
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said the U.S. intelligence community agreed prior to the war that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon.
www.foxnews.com
UN sanctions are an important tool for maintaining international peace and have shaped the global security order since the end of the Cold War. However, given contemporary UN Security Council (UNSC) dynamics, new sanctions regimes have become rare, and policymakers are pessimistic about the future of the tool. We evaluate this pessimism by offering a long-term perspective, analyzing all UNSC members’ positions on UN-mandated and unilateral sanctions from 1992 to 2023, introducing the UNSC Sanctions Stance Dataset. We examine 5,984 sanctions-related Council speeches using a large language model for measurement, and validate this procedure with hand coding, descriptive analyses, and expert interviews. Our description of the construction process and guidance on using LLMs for measurement serve as a template for creating LLM-coded and manually and substantively verified datasets from IO speech data. The analysis focuses on Russia, China, and the Global South, and traces their positions in detail. We find that Russia turned from limited support of UN sanctions in the 2000s to total opposition in the mid-2010s, while China has persistently been opposed, offering at most begrudging tolerance. The P3 (France, UK, US) have consistently been supportive. Meanwhile, states from the Global South hold a distinct intermediate position, opposing unilateral sanctions while cautiously but consistently supporting UN-mandated sanctions. This finding cuts against an assumption of Global South opposition to sanctions in general.
Multi-Domain Operations are boring
Germany is laser-focused on "Multi-Temporal War", in which you can already fight today's wars by using the methods that will only be available in the distant future
www.bmvg.de/resource/blo...
Nobody, literally nobody, could have possibly seen this coming
Christoph Harig
Federica Genovese
Venezuela is an important oil producer (~top15 in global ranking), with some of the world's largest proven oil reserves. Supply chocked last year but export to 🇨🇳 was picking up.
The current uncertainty will be profitable to other fossil giants (🇷🇺)
Unless, just an idea: we take renewables seriously
