Ex Journalist Bloomberg/FEER/CSM. Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, then Iraq/Egypt with a smattering of everywhere else. Same handle over at Mos Eisley Spaceport. Made wine for a few years. Now training a blue heeler in the CA foothills.
Dan Murphy
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To hold $135 at a generous 30x multiple, SpaceX needs ~$60B of annual net income. Last year it lost $4.9B. So it needs $65B in profit, somehow building out of thin air the profits of Bank of America ($30B) + Exxon ($25B) + Netflix ($11B). For reference, Tesla is a mere $4B.
What an opportunity!
/9
SpaceX's $1.8T "valuation" isn't real, it's manufactured by a tiny 4.2% public float. $1.8T is ~95x SpaceX's trailing revenue. Google IPO'd at ~7x revenue, Facebook at ~20x. This is Snowflake's multiple stapled to Rivian's capital burn, a combo with a flawless record of bagholders.
/2
Well, this calls for some Stiff Little Fingers. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlGm...
this thread answers the question "what if the SpaceX IPO roadshow were honest?"
According to the theories of liability US DOJ has adopted, this makes Elon a co-conspirator in credible death threats.
SpaceX board member Antonio Gracias's firm Valor holds $20.2B in equipment leases with SpaceX at an implied ~22.6% rate, basically credit-card debt rates, and >5x the company's ordinary equipment financing rate of 4.4%. No fairness opinion, no competing bids, no independent committee. Sweet.
/5
