I really enjoyed writing this one because marginaleffects just makes so much sense! It's a bit like with causal graphs -- a great tool to make sense of stuff, so why not teach it early on to make life a bit easier?
Chat Control's final trilogue: June 29. The "win" (no mandatory scanning of encrypted messages) hides two quieter losses: risk-mitigation scanning + mandatory age verification. Encryption survives. Anonymity doesn't.
Paper update: wildetruth.substack.com/p/encryption...
Nice critique of mass screening for low-prevalence problems in one of their most popular incarnations, colon cancer screening: www.sensible-med.com/p/the-hubris...
New methods for estimating effects of mass screenings for low-prevalence problems account for time better than ever. But also raise open questions about mechanisms. Like, is colonoscopist quality a facet of accuracy heterogeneity or strategic behavior?
wildetruth.substack.com/p/when-bette...
95%CI [last Tuesday, heat death of the universe]
Also, the singularity identifies off the assumption that nothing in the DGP changes when you fully automate the DGP. Bold consistency assumption!