Specifically, how a traditionally patriarchal and very conservative society like Japan's is facing the dilemma of allowing a female heir to become the first empress in centuries (the last one stepped down in 1771).
Pastor Sergeant Isidório, an incumbent Brazilian MP, publicly apologized for mistakenly voting against a bill to reduce working hours during a committee session.
The catch is that he couldn't have voted anyway, as he was only an replacement member.
We also discussed the political implications of clinging to the past rather than modernizing. The podcast is now online, and if you understand Portuguese, give it a listen! It is also available on Spotify, YouTube Music, and other platforms.
I had a great chat with Mara Tribuna from the Portuguese news outlet @jornalexpresso.bsky.social and their podcast O Mundo a Seus Pés. This was my third time on the podcast, and we talked about the succession line to the Japanese imperial throne.
Video
Happy to contribute once again with the @jornalexpresso.bsky.social and the great Hélder Gomes for an article about the rumors about the "new" Russian interference on the European stability through nostalgic sectors in Austria. My two cents were on how Austrian parties and see (or don't) the matter.
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social)
Do opinion polls shape election results?
Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
This builds on our earlier work in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, where we showed that margins of error shape vote choices at the top of the race. Now we find the same is true at electoral thresholds. Polls & their communication matter throughout the ballot. 👇🏁
doi.org/10.1111/1475...